Saturday, November 22, 2008

Apple: Can iPhone Sales Grow In The December Quarter?

Posted by Eric Savitz

One the features of Apple’s (AAPL) recent earnings report for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September was that the company sold 6.9 million iPhones, many more than some analysts expected, and enough to push the company into the ranks of the world’s largest cell phone vendors, ahead of even mighty Research In Motion (RIMM)

But the strong performance - and the rapidly eroding economic landscape - raises an interesting question: Can the company sell more phones in the December quarter than it did in the last quarter? On the one hand, we’re headed into the holiday selling season. But this is shaping up to be a Christmas season that only the Grinch could love, with sales expected to be the worst in years. Needham analyst Charlie Wolf, a roaring bull on Apple’s shares, noted in a report this week that of the nearly 7 million phones sold in the latest quarter, 2 million are in carrier inventories. He says that fact “suggests that iPhone sales might decline in the December quarter,” although he notes that the company is in the process of expanding distribution to 15 smaller countries, which could provide some offset.

Investment research firm JRPG took a look at this issue today, with the help of Rethink Research, which tracks the wireless industry, and concluded that Apple could sell as many as 8 million iPhone in the quarter.Continued...

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